the all-in podcast

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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella: AI Can Fake Your Books! “One of the fascinating things right now is the insider risk. I can happen for a very mundane task that I give one of these frontier models inside an enterprise. Suppose I say, ‘Hey, go optimize my working capital.’ It may fake my books, right? This is a new type of insider risk.” How to fix these risks? Classic engineering playbooks “I would say, ‘Oh, go build a causal model, like a semantic model that actually checks and verifies.’ So I think there's a lot of product building, making things more robust, which is classic engineering that we should be talking a lot more about transparently versus saying, ‘Hey, this is so mystical that we can't figure this out.’” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com (http://www.meta.com/) Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/

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David Friedberg: Obama Doesn’t Understand AI and He’s Making Prosperity Political President Obama last week: “If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI. That's a misalignment between what our society needs and the commercial imperatives that these companies are facing.” Friedberg: “These words honestly just, they made me, like, emotionally distressed that if he's a leader that people listen to and he doesn't really articulate accurately what's going on, it's sad that we've lost the plot. I think it's sad that we aren't all kind of holding hands saying, ‘My God, the future is here, and we all get to leap forward, and we get to bring people up.’ For years, Obama orated beautifully about the importance of bringing people up, about giving people the opportunity to progress, about letting people advance themselves. And there's never been a more equalizing technology, a better economic opportunity for prosperity for everyone than these technologies, than these tools. And to hand wave the word agentic and say we don't need agentic AI to solve cancer shows how little he actually understands how this technology works and how it's all become just a shorthand for a political fight to what? What are you fighting for? What is the political battle that says, ‘I am going to leave half the population behind, and I'm going to make an argument against prosperity for all in order to make my party look like a morally superior party and to cast the other side as bad when the other side has literally discovered fire and the world now has fire, and we're going to go take water and throw it on the fire.’ No one gets fire because the other guys are saying that fire is good.”

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Jensen Huang Calls Out AI Doomers: “All of These Predictions Have Been Wrong” Chamath: “What does that mean, 10% chance of extinction?” Jensen Huang: “It's made up, and it shouldn't be done. It's irresponsible. Now, the fact of the matter is, let's go back and look at the real facts. There was a prediction that in five years' time, radiology will be completely taken over by artificial intelligence and there'll be no radiologists in the world. That has proven to be exactly the opposite. We need more radiologists than ever in the world. However, AI has taken over radiology completely, which is great. It has automated scan reading, which is great. There was a prediction that within 6-12 months, 90% of code would already be generated by AI. That has turned out to be wrong. Within 6-9 months, that was predicted last year, 50% of entry jobs will be wiped out. That has proven to be wrong. What else has proven to be wrong? I mean, all of these predictions have been wrong.” David Sacks: “GPT-2 would be too unsafe to release, that LLaMA-3 would be too unsafe to release.” Jason:  “Half of white collar jobs would be gone next year.” Sacks: “The jobs apocalypse, yeah.” Jensen: “We have to take accountability. We have to take account for all of the stupid predictions that were made. Somebody has to take (accountability).  And, and so we ought to just keep track of all that, and of course, people do, and remind us that those, those predictions are inconsistent with, ultimately, America winning the AI race.” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/  Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin

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“They Got a $50,000 Check”: Meta’s Data Center Windfall for Local Teachers $META President and Vice Chair: “Because of our investment, the tax surplus would go straight to teachers.” Richland Parish Superintendent of Schools Sheldon Jones: “I could immediately start to see the increase in our sales tax collections. There are six taxing entities in our parish, the Richland Parish School Board collects 51% of the taxes for the district. So I was able to see the sales tax collections go from 5-10%, which is normal for a school system, to about 60-70% percent. And at that time, the number of workers at the data center site increased. Those collections peaked at about 260%. So we have a one cent and a one-half cent sales tax that's dedicated to employee salaries. And so we're announcing these sales tax increases at our school board meetings, and we're educators, so people can do the math. They start to figure out this is going to translate into a larger sales tax check, which directly goes into our salaries. So in December of 2025, we gave out a one-half cent sales tax check. That check doubled from the previous year. So it went from roughly about $4,000 to about $8,000. But we hadn't seen a full year of spiked increases in sales tax collections. That happened this past June. So our certified employees received an increase of about $40,000 in their sales tax check.” Friedberg: “Wow. They got a $40,000 check?” Sheldon Jones: “They got a $50,000 check.” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com

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Chamath Warns: Your AI Data Isn’t as Private as You Think “Privacy in AI is very fragile and it's very brittle. There are all kinds of non-obvious data leak vectors lurking in AI. If you think that you're going to flip a ZDR switch, zero data retention, which is the magic term that the industry uses to tell you that everything's going to be okay. I think the answer and the message should be, ‘It's not going to be okay because you can't guarantee any of it.’ So the model companies, when they give you these zero data retention policies, are probably trying their best. But I think the reality is you are leaking information where you don't know it. And they, despite their best efforts, may still have trapdoors that they don't even know about until it's figured out by somebody else. You need an independent third-party layer to interface to these models to manage this exposure, because there are trapdoors everywhere.”

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Jason:  “The fact that they're creating laws to try to stop you from doing basic journalism means you're kicking f***ing ass, Nick. Don't stop. What you represent to them is a threat, because they came up and they wanted to do what you're doing. They were idealistic, these journalists, and they wanted to be brave enough to uncover these things, and they've become captured and politicized, and they have picked a side. You haven't. That's why they criticize you, and the criticism they have of you is, ‘Oh, he wasn't fact-checking here, wasn't thorough enough here.’ Yeah, okay, fine. On the margins, you're learning on the job, and I've had conversations with you privately about little nuances of things that you need to tighten up. None of that is important. What's important is that you find fraud. You find actual, real fraud, and you put the people on camera, and you shame them, and then they get arrested, and you're forcing the AGs in this country to face it, and it's just you. It's just you and your pure desire and energy to do it, and that's what journalists hate about you. Because they could do it, too, and they should be ashamed that they don't. This was the job of 60 Minutes and Frontline, and they forgot how to do their job, and you're picking up the mantle of what Frontline and 60 Minutes used to be.” Nick: “I agree. Give me some.” Jason: “You’re my guy.” Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Airwallex - Agentic Global Business Accounts. Open local accounts in 70+ countries to accept payments, earn yield, pay globally, and manage spend. http://airwallex.com PayPal has been revolutionizing commerce globally for more than 25 years. Creating innovative experiences that make moving money, selling, and shopping simple, personalized, and secure, PayPal empowers consumers and businesses in approximately 200 markets to join and thrive in the global economy. For more information, visit https://www.paypal.com

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Daniel Ek: The US is spending 18% of its GDP on healthcare. It's the single largest line item in the budget right now. Preventable chronic disease is the biggest drive. “The US is spending 18% of its GDP on healthcare. It's the single largest line item in the budget right now. And if you take heart disease alone, it's in the hundreds of billions of dollars that are being spent on that disease group in the US alone. It's just insane. It's larger than Fortune 10 companies' revenues. And so I started looking into everything from drugs, to can you make more efficient drugs? Is it about cancers? And basically started targeting like, what are the real reasons it looks that way? The real conclusion ended up being there's lots of reasons, not one. But the major one is really chronic disease, overall. And the crazy thing about chronic disease, when you read about it, is that if you discover these things early, they're totally preventable, and the cost of dealing with them is very small, and the suffering for the person and their family and community is very small, too. So the key thing is if you discover things early, you're actually good. And so then the question is, well, why don't we discover things early? And it happens to be that we don't have enough data. So everyone in the entire healthcare industry is in agreement that we have to take healthcare from reactive to preventative health. Our view is really that it all starts with having better data. If you have better data, you're going to be able to discover things much more easily, and that in itself will then lead to having a chance of discovering those things much earlier, which creates this virtuous flywheel of then changing healthcare.” ------------------------------------ Thanks to our partners! As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. http://CreativePlanning.com/AllIn (http://creativeplanning.com/AllIn)  Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at http://northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE

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Jason Calacanis: Dario Seems to Be Sabotaging His Own IPO Via @Polymarket: -- Anthropic's chances to IPO this year dropped 21 percentage points over the last three weeks -- 96% (Sept 4th) ➡️ 75% (Sept 26th) “They started a lab after telling us that there's a 10% chance of us all dying. Is this a dereliction of duty as the chief executive officer of Anthropic to sabotage your own IPO? You're supposed to be acting on behalf of your shareholders. This to me seems like if we were the board, if the four of us were somehow magically the board of Anthropic, we would replace the CEO. We would put the CEO in the lab, and we'd find a CEO who knows how to run the company and not sabotage it.”

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Steve Hilton: “California has become a state where if you do the right thing, you're punished, and if you do the wrong thing, you're rewarded. That is upside down, but that's the story beneath everything, and that's what we need to turn around. That's what this election is actually about.” “There's this Latino couple who wanted me to come and see their business in South Central LA. It's not Skid Row, but it's pretty rough, and it's the usual squalor that I'm afraid we're used to in this city because they don't know how to run the place. But in the middle of all that squalor, this beautiful little store. They run a store. It's a shoe store, and they've been running it fourteen years. Latino couple. We went in, we were talking, they gave me all the usual things that I'm very familiar with; the taxes, the ridiculous bureaucracy, the permits that get more complicated and costly every year, the electric bill, et cetera.  They said, ‘But that's not why we wanted you to come here. Come with me.’ They took me outside. We went for a walk, two city blocks. Could have gone even further. Every single part of the sidewalk: street vendors. You think, ‘Illegal street vendors. What are they selling?’ Shoes and apparel and T-shirts. Just the entire sidewalk. This 14-year business, a lovely little local business, everything spotless, everything clean, exactly what we would want to see, is going out of business because you've got people there that are not paying taxes, not paying electric, not paying rent, not complying with any licensing. And then I said to the guy, ‘When did all this happen? Has this been here all the time you've been here?’ ‘No, it's the last six or seven years.’ I said, ‘Is it something to do with the pandemic?’ ‘No.’ I looked into it. Eight years ago, in 2018, they passed a bill in Sacramento to legalize street vending in California across the state. Cities can't do anything about it. Counties can't do anything about it. What does it tell you when you take that into account?” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Google for Startups connects founders with the right people, products, and best practices to help startups build faster and go further. https://startup.google.com/  Explore ideas, industries, and technologies worth understanding with Chamath every week on Learn with Me: https://research.socialcapital.com/allin

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Chamath on Obama’s AI Warning: Follow the Money President Obama last week: “If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI. That's a misalignment between what our society needs and the commercial imperatives that these companies are facing.” Chamath: “This is a very important moment for a very simple reason, which is we, as in the world, are about to endow three, four, five, six companies with about $10T of wealth. And what Obama knows very well is that most of those companies are overwhelmingly left-leaning. And what he also knows is that there is a huge portion of that money that will then get put into philanthropic and charitable causes that then he, and the people around him, will be beneficiaries of. That is the truth. We already know this because we know that some of these frontier corporations actually ask you to stand up DAFs and have a portion of your stock that you're willing to pledge. So this money is going to go to things other than consumption or savings. And so it's going to go into PACs, it's going to go into political movements, and (Democrats) stand to disproportionately benefit. So this has nothing to do with prosperity. This is a very simple political calculus. If you freeze frame the economy the way it is today, a handful of organizations that will disproportionately be able to affect the Democrats will win. They will capture the lion's share of the economic gains, and then they will help the Democrats win power. That's all this is.”

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JD Vance to AI Labs: Don’t Build “Frankenstein” and Then Ask for Government Regulation “Why is it that the people who are at the frontier of the AI economy are throwing up their hands and saying, ‘Well, we've built Frankenstein,’ and the solution to Frankenstein apparently is to create a one world governance structure for artificial intelligence? What I would say to those people: If you're building Frankenstein, stop. If the cat is out of the bag, then build the defensive mechanism against Frankenstein. And you know, I don't know Dario well. I've read everything that he's said over the past couple of weeks. Everybody that I know tells me that he's very earnest, that this is a deeply held belief. It's not cynical. It's not about regulatory capture, that he genuinely cares about this. But at the same time, I talk to tech companies. I'm sure you guys talk to a lot more tech companies than I do. At the same time that you have this sort of cyber hacking tool that's come out of Anthropic's newest models, you have companies that are desperate for the defensive mechanisms to defend against that cyber hacking tool, and they're being denied access to it. So if you're going to create Frankenstein, don't come to the government and say, ‘We need regulation.’ Look inward and accept that if you're building Frankenstein, number one, you should stop, and number two, when the companies come to you and say, ‘We need the tools to fight back against Frankenstein,’ give them those tools.” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Meta believes the future is for everyone. We're focused on giving every person the tools to reach their full potential and making sure the benefits of technology are distributed to all. http://www.meta.com Keel Infrastructure owns the power, land, and connectivity that HPC and AI run on - backed by secured energy assets and established grid interconnections across North America. https://keelinfra.com/

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Elon Proposes Adversarial Peer Reviews for AI Safety “What I think would be wise to do as soon as possible, if not immediately, would be to have the major AI competitors test each other's models. So that you would have everyone's security test harness testing everyone else's model. So, instead of grading your own homework, you would at least have competitors grading your homework, and raising the alarm if they see concerns. If competitors say that this model is unsafe, and that model then subsequently does something bad, I think it would be extremely hard to live down. The egg on face level would be very, very high. And the legal liability would be enormous. And any given proposal has to be something that China is willing to accept, otherwise we're just handicapping ourselves.” Jason: “And Elon, there's no reason these safety and security harnesses and this testing apparatus couldn't be open source, and people could actually supply it. And you'd be able to see under the hood.” Chamath “It creates an incredible incentive for the labs to actually invest in safety because you protect yourself while trying to debunk other people's claims.” Sacks: “Well, the product liability point is really key. Lina Khan actually had a good post, I think it was yesterday, saying that it's not true that we don't have rules and regulations for AI, actually, we do. Product liability laws apply. And what you're saying, Elon, is that if the companies are doing this test, the peer review, and then one of the companies ignores the feedback and releases it…” Elon: “The liability in that case would be enormous.” Sacks: “Yes. It would be almost like prima facie evidence that they had been negligent.” Elon: “It won't look good to the jury.” Chamath: “I like this solution a lot. I like this more than the transnational gulag organization approach.” Sacks: “Well, we can do it in a few weeks without some grandiose international... like, we don't need to convene the United Nations to make this happen.” Chamath: “No, it's just a decision. It could happen right now.” Elon: “You can always escalate the amount of regulatory oversight, but it is very difficult to reduce it.” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! IREN is a vertically integrated AI Cloud platform, delivering data centers, compute and software for AI training and inference. https://iren.com/ Oracle connects the data, applications, and infrastructure that turn AI into business outcomes—with the flexibility, choice, and control to optimize as AI evolves. http://oracle.com/ai EY helps tech innovators scale from startup to exit to megacap. You build the future. We’ll handle the rest. http://www.ey.com